A Challenge to Brokers and Shippers: Prove Me Wrong
I keep hearing that carriers are “being dramatic” about rates and that freight “just doesn’t pay better right now.” So let’s stop talking in feelings and start talking in numbers. Here’s my challenge to brokers and shippers in this forum: Prove that bulk freight can be moved below a carrier’s operating cost without causing long-term damage to the supply chain. Not anecdotes. Not “a guy I know runs cheaper.” Actual math. Show me: Equipment cost Insurance Fuel at real averages Maintenance and depreciation Driver pay or owner compensation Downtime, detention, and deadhead Taxes and compliance Then show how that carrier: Stays solvent Maintains equipment safely Replaces trucks when needed Survives rate cycles Doesn’t exit the market within a few years Because here’s what history actually shows: When freight is normalized below operating cost, carriers don’t magically become more efficient. They burn cash. They defer maintenance. They take on debt. Then they fail. When enough carriers fail, capacity tightens. When capacity tightens, rates spike suddenly. When rates spike, shippers lose stability. When instability hits manufacturing and retail, consumers pay more. That isn’t theory. That’s the cycle we keep repeating. If a lane can’t support sustainable carrier pricing, the problem isn’t the carrier. The freight itself is mispriced. So here’s the floor: Post the numbers. Show the model. Prove sustainability. If I’m wrong, I’ll say it publicly. If I’m right, maybe we stop pretending underpaying carriers is a harmless shortcut. Your move. — Micheal “Cupcake” Cobb Bob and Cobb’s Homestead LLC https://www.wethefopt.org